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            <title>GUBU</title>
            <description><![CDATA[<p>Well, that was the week that was. So how would you describe it? <b>Unbelievable. Bizarre. Unprecedented</b>. And to a stubborn minority in the country - probably <b>Grotesque</b>.  But enough about Ireland's win against England in the Cricket World Cup... <br />
Election 2011 was certainly without precedent, and was historic and ground breaking for so many reasons - <b>Fianna Fail</b>'s lowest ever Dail representation, <b>Fine Gael</b> and Labour's highest, <b>Sinn Fein</b> with its highest number of seats since the struggle for independence.  And as for the eclectic bunch of Independents in the ranks.... Where do you start?<br />
I commented previously that the 2011 campaign was curious, as there was no game-breaking moment - neither a killer punch nor a banana skin springs to mind.  <br />
I think there were a couple of reasons for this - in essence the campaign began in November, when the <b>Greens</b> finally signalled they were pulling the plug on a government that had been on life support for a long, long time. There was an element of fatigue in the air.  <br />
Secondly, it was clear pretty much from the outset that there was not going to be a recovery for Fianna Fail (a recovery being understood to mean a respectable showing - say twenty five percent). The electorate was in an unforgiving mood, and was not prepared to listen to apologies, proposed reforms or justifications for what had happened to the economy.<br />
After that realisation, it was really just a matter of who would benefit most from the carve-up. It reminded me of a nature documentary, where you watch animals of various sizes step up to claim their piece of what was once a mighty animal. It seems there was enough meat on the carcass to keep most of them fed (for the next five years at any rate). Or will it?<br />
To paraphrase one the newly elected TDs, the turbulent times we live in haven't gone away you know. <br />
With this in mind, as part of our Omnibus survey, we have been asking the electorate over the month of February how long the new government (however it's made up) will last.  Less than a quarter (23%) thought the next government will last full term.  One third did not know, leaving a sizeable minority (44%) believing we will be back here sooner than that.<br />
So until then, enjoy the fireworks, and on the basis of what the electorate thinks of the future government's success, you may be hearing from me again- sooner than you think.<br />
-  <b>Paul Moran Millward Brown Lansdowne</b></p>]]></description>
            <link>http://www.electionpredict.com/news/millward-brown-lansdowne-blog/gubu.html</link>
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                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category">001 Latest Election News</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category">003 Millward Brown Lansdowne Blog</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category">News</category>
            
            
            <pubDate>Thu, 03 Mar 2011 13:24:27 +0000</pubDate>
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            <title>Confirmed TDs of the 31st Dail</title>
            <description><![CDATA[<p><br/>The final seats of the 31st dail have now been filled following a re-count in Galway West. Read on for a full list of all elected TDs in all 43 constituencies.<br />
<br/></p>

<p><b>Carlow-Kilkenny</b> <span class="caps">COUNT COMPLETED</span><br />
Ann Phelan - <span class="caps">LAB</span><br />
John McGuinness - FF<br />
John Paul Phelan - FG<br />
Phil Hogan - FG<br />
Pat Deering - FG</p>

<p><b>Cavan-Monaghan</b> <span class="caps">COUNT COMPLETED</span><br />
Caoimhghin O Caolain - SF<br />
Brendan Smith - FF<br />
Joe <span class="caps">O'R</span>eilly - FG<br />
Sean Conlan - FG<br />
Heather Humphreys - FG</p>

<p><b>Clare</b> <span class="caps">COUNT COMPLETED</span><br />
Pat Breen - FG<br />
Michael McNamara - <span class="caps">LAB</span><br />
Joe Carey - FG<br />
Timmy Dooley - FF</p>

<p><b>Cork East</b> <span class="caps">COUNT COMPLETED</span><br />
Sean Sherlock - <span class="caps">LAB</span><br />
David Stanton - FG<br />
Tom Barry - FG<br />
Sandra McLellan - SF</p>

<p><b>Cork North Central</b> <span class="caps">COUNT COMPLETED</span><br />
Jonathan <span class="caps">O'B</span>rien - SF<br />
Kathleen Lynch - <span class="caps">LAB</span><br />
Billy Kelleher - FF<br />
Dara Murphy - FG</p>

<p><b>Cork North-West</b> <span class="caps">COUNT COMPLETED</span><br />
Michael Creed - FG<br />
Aine Collins - FG<br />
Michael Moynihan - FF</p>

<p><b>Cork South Central</b> <span class="caps">COUNT COMPLETED</span><br />
Micheal Martin - FF<br />
Ciaran Lynch - <span class="caps">LAB</span><br />
Simon Coveney - FG<br />
Jerry Buttimer - FG<br />
Michael McGrath - FF</p>

<p><b>Cork South-West</b> <span class="caps">COUNT COMPLETED</span><br />
Jim Daly - FG<br />
Noel Harrington - FG<br />
Michael McCarthy - <span class="caps">LAB</span><br />
 <br />
<b>Donegal North-East</b> <span class="caps">COUNT COMPLETED</span><br />
Padraig MacLochlainn - SF<br />
Joe McHugh - FG<br />
Charlie McConalogue - FF</p>

<p><b>Donegal South-West</b> <span class="caps">COUNT COMPLETED</span><br />
Pearse Doherty - SF<br />
Dinny McGinley - FG<br />
Thomas Pringle - <span class="caps">IND</span></p>

<p><b>Dublin Central</b> <span class="caps">COUNT COMPLETED</span><br />
Paschal Donoghue - FG<br />
Maureen <span class="caps">O'S</span>ullivan - <span class="caps">IND</span><br />
Joe Costello - <span class="caps">LAB</span><br />
Mary Lou McDonald - SF</p>

<p><b>Dublin Mid-West</b> <span class="caps">COUNT COMPLETED</span><br />
Joanna Tuffy - <span class="caps">LAB </span><br />
Frances Fitzgerald - FG<br />
Robert Dowds - <span class="caps">LAB</span><br />
Derek Keating - FG</p>

<p><b>Dublin North</b> <span class="caps">COUNT COMPLETED</span><br />
James Reilly - FG<br />
Brendan Ryan - <span class="caps">LAB</span><br />
Clare Daly - SP<br />
Alan Farrell - FG</p>

<p><b>Dublin North-Central</b> <span class="caps">COUNT COMPLETED</span><br />
Richard Bruton - FG<br />
Aodhan <span class="caps">O'R</span>iordain - <span class="caps">LAB</span><br />
Finian McGrath - <span class="caps">IND</span></p>

<p><b>Dublin North-East</b> <span class="caps">COUNT COMPLETED </span><br />
Terence Flanagan - FG<br />
Tommy Broughan - <span class="caps">LAB</span><br />
Sean Kenny - <span class="caps">LAB</span></p>

<p><b>Dublin North-West</b> <span class="caps">COUNT COMPLETED</span><br />
Roisin Shortall - <span class="caps">LAB</span><br />
Dessie Ellis - SF<br />
John Lyons - <span class="caps">LAB</span></p>

<p><b>Dublin South</b> <span class="caps">COUNT COMPLETED</span><br />
Shane Ross - <span class="caps">IND</span><br />
Alex White - <span class="caps">LAB</span><br />
Olivia Mitchell - FG<br />
Peter Mathews - FG<br />
Alan Shatter - FG</p>

<p><b>Dublin South-Central</b> <span class="caps">COUNT COMPLETED</span><br />
Eric Byrne - <span class="caps">LAB</span><br />
Catherine Byrne - FG<br />
Aengus <span class="caps">O'S</span>nodaigh - SF<br />
Joan Collins - <span class="caps">PBP</span><br />
Michael Conaghan - <span class="caps">LAB</span></p>

<p><b>Dublin South-East</b> <span class="caps">COUNT COMPLETED</span><br />
Ruairi Quinn - <span class="caps">LAB</span><br />
Lucinda Creighton - FG<br />
Eoghan Murphy - FG<br />
Kevin Humphreys - <span class="caps">LAB</span></p>

<p><b>Dublin South-West</b> <span class="caps">COUNT COMPLETED</span><br />
Pat Rabbitte - <span class="caps">LAB</span><br />
Brian Hayes - FG<br />
Sean Crowe - SF<br />
Eamon Maloney - <span class="caps">LAB</span></p>

<p><b>Dublin West</b> <span class="caps">COUNT COMPLETED</span><br />
Joe Higgins - SP<br />
Joan Burton - <span class="caps">LAB</span><br />
Leo Varadkar - FG<br />
Brian Lenihan - FF</p>

<p><b>Dún Laoghaire</b> <span class="caps">COUNT COMPLETED</span><br />
Eamon Gilmore - <span class="caps">LAB</span><br />
Sean Barrett - FG<br />
Mary Mitchell <span class="caps">O'C</span>onnor - FG<br />
Richard Boyd Barrett - <span class="caps">PBP</span></p>

<p><b>Galway East</b> <span class="caps">COUNT COMPLETED</span><br />
Michael Kitt - FF<br />
Paul Connaughton - FG<br />
Ciaran Cannon - FG<br />
Colm Keaveney - <span class="caps">LAB</span></p>

<p><b>Galway West</b> <span class="caps">COUNT COMPLETED</span><br />
Eamon <span class="caps">O'C</span>uiv - FF<br />
Derek Nolan - <span class="caps">LAB</span><br />
Brian Walsh - FG<br />
Noel Grealish - <span class="caps">IND</span><br />
Sean Kyne - <span class="caps">IND</span></p>

<p> <br />
<b>Kerry North-West Limerick</b> <span class="caps">COUNT COMPLETED</span><br />
Jimmy Deenihan - FG<br />
Arthur Spring - <span class="caps">LAB</span><br />
Martin Ferris - SF</p>


<p><b>Kerry South</b> <span class="caps">COUNT COMPLETED</span><br />
Brendan Griffin - FG<br />
Tom Flemming - <span class="caps">IND</span><br />
Michael Healy Rae - <span class="caps">IND</span></p>

<p><b>Kildare North</b> <span class="caps">COUNT COMPLETED</span><br />
Catherine Murphy - <span class="caps">IND</span><br />
Anthony Lawlor - FG<br />
Bernard Durkan - FG<br />
Emmet Stagg - <span class="caps">LAB</span></p>

<p><b>Kildare South</b> <span class="caps">COUNT COMPLETED</span><br />
Martin Heydon - FG<br />
Jack Wall - <span class="caps">LAB</span><br />
Sean <span class="caps">O'F</span>earghail - FF</p>

<p><b>Laois-Offaly</b> <span class="caps">COUNT COMPLETED</span><br />
Charles Flanagan - FG<br />
Marcella Corcoran Kennedy - FG<br />
Barry Cowen - FF<br />
Brian Stanley - SF<br />
Sean Fleming - FF</p>

<p><b>Limerick</b> <span class="caps">COUNT COMPLETED</span><br />
Patrick <span class="caps">O'D</span>onovan - FG<br />
Dan Neville - FG<br />
Niall Collins - FF</p>

<p><b>Limerick City</b> <span class="caps">COUNT COMPLETED</span><br />
Michael Noonan - FG<br />
Kieran <span class="caps">O'D</span>onnell - FG<br />
Willie <span class="caps">O'D</span>ea - FF<br />
Jan <span class="caps">O'S</span>ullivan - <span class="caps">LAB</span></p>

<p><b>Longford-Westmeath</b> <span class="caps">COUNT COMPLETED</span><br />
Willie Penrose - <span class="caps">LAB</span><br />
James Bannon - FG<br />
Nicky McFadden - FG<br />
Robert Troy - FF</p>

<p><b>Louth</b> <span class="caps">COUNT COMPLETED</span><br />
Seamus Kirk - FF (CC)<br />
Gerry Adams - SF<br />
Fergus <span class="caps">O'D</span>owd - FG<br />
Gerald Nash - <span class="caps">LAB</span><br />
Peter Fitzpatrick - FG</p>

<p><b>Mayo</b> <span class="caps">COUNT COMPLETED</span><br />
Enda Kenny - FG<br />
Michael Ring - FG<br />
Michelle Mulhern - FG<br />
Dara Calleary - FF<br />
John <span class="caps">O'M</span>ahoney - FG</p>

<p><b>Meath East</b> <span class="caps">COUNT COMPLETED</span><br />
Dominic Hannigan - <span class="caps">LAB</span><br />
Regina Doherty - FG<br />
Shane McEntee - FG</p>

<p><b>Meath West</b> <span class="caps">COUNT COMPLETED</span><br />
Damien English - FG<br />
Peadar Toibin - SF<br />
Ray Butler - FG</p>

<p><b>Roscommon-South Leitrim</b> <span class="caps">COUNT COMPLETED</span><br />
Luke 'Ming' Flanagan - <span class="caps">IND</span><br />
Frank Feighan - FG<br />
Denis Naughten - FG</p>


<p><b>Sligo-North Leitrim</b> <span class="caps">COUNT COMPLETED</span><br />
John Perry - FG<br />
Tony McGloughlin - FG<br />
Michael Colreavy - SF</p>


<p><b>Tipperary North</b> <span class="caps">COUNT COMPLETED</span><br />
Michael Lowry - <span class="caps">IND</span><br />
Noel Coonan - FG<br />
Alan Kelly - <span class="caps">LAB</span></p>

<p><b>Tipperary South</b> <span class="caps">COUNT COMPLETED</span><br />
Tom Hayes - FG<br />
Seamus Healy - <span class="caps">IND</span><br />
Mattie McGrath - <span class="caps">IND</span></p>

<p><b>Waterford</b> <span class="caps">COUNT COMPLETED</span><br />
John Deasy - FG<br />
Paudie Coffey - FG<br />
Ciara Conway - <span class="caps">LAB</span><br />
John Halligan - <span class="caps">IND</span></p>

<p><b>Wexford</b> <span class="caps">COUNT COMPLETED</span><br />
Mick Wallace - <span class="caps">IND</span><br />
Brendan Howlin - <span class="caps">LAB</span><br />
John Browne - FF<br />
Liam Twomey - FG<br />
Paul Kehoe - FG</p>

<p><b>Wicklow</b> - <span class="caps">COUNT COMPLETED</span><br />
Andrew Doyle - FG<br />
Billy Timmins - FG<br />
Simon Harris - FG<br />
Anne Ferris - <span class="caps">LAB</span><br />
Stephen Donnelly - <span class="caps">IND</span></p>]]></description>
            <link>http://www.electionpredict.com/news/confirmed-tds-of-the-31st-dail.html</link>
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                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category">001 Latest Election News</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category">002 Election Predict Blog</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category">News</category>
            
            
            <pubDate>Wed, 02 Mar 2011 09:10:00 +0000</pubDate>
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            <title>Our New Taoiseach</title>
            <description></description>
            <link>http://www.electionpredict.com/news/betfair-ireland-blog/our-new-taoiseach.html</link>
            <guid>http://www.electionpredict.com/news/betfair-ireland-blog/our-new-taoiseach.html</guid>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category">004 Betfair Ireland</category>
            
            
            <pubDate>Tue, 01 Mar 2011 19:30:00 +0000</pubDate>
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            <title>Man In The Mirror</title>
            <description></description>
            <link>http://www.electionpredict.com/news/betfair-ireland-blog/man-in-the-mirror.html</link>
            <guid>http://www.electionpredict.com/news/betfair-ireland-blog/man-in-the-mirror.html</guid>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category">004 Betfair Ireland</category>
            
            
            <pubDate>Tue, 01 Mar 2011 15:24:00 +0000</pubDate>
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            <title>Betfair Punters go West in last GE11 Battle</title>
            <description><![CDATA[<p><span class="caps">PUNTERS </span>on Betfair are relishing the last constituency battle of the General Election 2011, with the Betfair market the only option for those looking to bet 'in-play' on what is fast becoming a fraught and tense count.  As it stands, the Betfair market makes Fine Gael's Sean Kyne the marginal favourite at 1/2 to claim the last spot in the 31st Dail, with Independent candidate Catherine Connolly trading at 6/4.</p>

<p>In what has been a record breaking Election in terms of market offerings and volume of trade on Betfair, the politically astute customers of the world's biggest betting community are continuing to back their opinion to the very last declaration in Galway West.<br />
Betfair Spokesman Barry Orr commented today: ''This seat is going down to the wire and only the shortest of short heads currently separate the two protagonists but the market is indicating Sean Kyne will pip Ms Connolly in the shadow of the post. Regardless of any further twists or turns in store, Betfair will be on hand to offer punters in-play betting on it until the final result is known.''<br />
Galway West Constituency; Betfair Bets: 1/2 Sean Kyne, 6/4 Catherine Connolly</p>]]></description>
            <link>http://www.electionpredict.com/news/betfair-punters-go-west-in-last-ge11-battle.html</link>
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                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category">001 Latest Election News</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category">004 Betfair Ireland</category>
            
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            <pubDate>Tue, 01 Mar 2011 13:44:53 +0000</pubDate>
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            <title>The Rise and Rise of Sinn Fein</title>
            <description><![CDATA[<p>It goes without saying that this Election was a major breakthrough for Sinn Féin, not just in the number of seats they won, but also in geography. They have moved well beyond the border counties, the diehard Republican areas and managed to get a foothold in inner city Ireland in a very big way.</p>

<p>They now have a track record of getting councillors elected as TDs and they will do more of that.  There is the prospect that Sinn Féin could get 30 TDs in the next Election.  I imagine they will be a real thorn in the side of the Labour Party in government and they are putting the same 'military-style' precision, which they showed in taking out the <span class="caps">SDLP </span>up North, into doing the same with the Labour Party down here in the Republic.  So they represent a significant threat.  </p>

<p>The fact that they now have a charismatic leader, who may not be very well versed on the economy but he is certainly more charismatic than Mary Lou or Caoimhghin O Caolain or Sean Crowe or any of the previous TDs they have had, is a big boon.  Adams will play on the heartstrings of 'Protest Ireland', and the numbers of the downtrodden and the dispossessed only likely to increase in the short term, I won't be on my own in thinking the big dark horse in the next Election will be Sinn Féin. </p>]]></description>
            <link>http://www.electionpredict.com/news/the-rise-and-rise-of-sinn-fein.html</link>
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                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category">001 Latest Election News</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category">005 Ivan Yates&apos; Election Betting</category>
            
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            <pubDate>Tue, 01 Mar 2011 08:30:00 +0000</pubDate>
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            <title>Coalition, but how will the Cabinet look?</title>
            <description><![CDATA[<p>My gut feeling is Labour will get six ministries, the most important of all being Finance.  There will be a new ministry for Public Service Reform and that should go to Fine Gael, maybe Richard Bruton. That will be Fine Gael's terms for giving Labour the Finance brief.</p>

<p>On the next Minister for Finance, what I said previously about Pat Rabbitte and his Mayo relationship with Enda Kenny all still stands and I'd still be a big layer of Michael Noonan at 1.18 on Betfair.  I think Michael Noonan might be in Justice. I think that there will be three Cabinet females - Roisin Shortall, Joan Burton and Frances Fitzgerald. It wouldn't surprise me if Joan Burton got Education although, if Richard Bruton doesn't get Public Service Reform, he might get Education.  I think Phil Hogan will be Minister for Environment. I think the new Minister for Foreign Affairs will be Ruairi Quinn, because I think he will have his eye on being the next EU Commissioner and I think they will want to develop the Socialist links. He was very committed at the time of the Lisbon Treaty and is a real Europhile.  Also, he is an older guy and may not want to stand in the next election.  And don't be surprised if this is Enda Kenny's last election, as well as being a lot of TDs' last election, if the government runs the full five years.  </p>

<p>Those who don't get Cabinet positions may be well be promised a major reshuffle after two and a half years, like was done with the Greens in 2007, to keep them on board. </p>

<p>James Reilly should get Health and the Department that Gilmore himself takes will be interesting.  It would not surprise me if he went for Communications, Energy or something like that. Fine Gael will want the Enterprise portfolio, and it will be very interesting to see where that goes.  Richard Bruton was in there before and may fancy another go, although Leo Varadkar might be in hunt for that. </p>

<p>I have not mentioned to many people outside of Dublin yet but Michael Ring might be in the hunt to be Minister for Defence. Enda will want to do something for the West of Ireland and for Mayo, who gave him four out five seats. </p>

<p>The way I see the week unfolding is that there will be a news blackout, there will be talks up to Friday and the two parties will try to finalise a document on Saturday.  Enda Kenny is going to Helsinki on Friday and I think there is a meeting of the European Socialist Party leaders that Gilmore will be attending.</p>

<p>The Labour party will have to present a document to a party conference for approval. There could be a little bit of high stakes around this and they may leave it until Tuesday 8th and have a meeting in the Mansion House as the Greens did.  But at that stage, once the party leaders have signed off on it, it will happen and there will be little difficulty in getting it ratified in my opinion.   All eyes will then be on Wednesday the 9th March, the day the Dail reconvenes. Brendan Howlin or Sean Barrett are my favourites to become the next Ceann Comhairle, although there may be some constituency considerations here.  </p>

<p>At the end of the day, my sense of it is, that the Cabinet selection will be delivered with a deal of suspense. There are always a few surprises. But the basic spread as I see it will be nine FG to six Labour or maybe even 10:5.  But you know Fine Gael don't have the numbers to form a government without Labour, even at 76 TDs, because if you look at the texture of the Independents (even if they were organised into a cohesive group), there are more Left Wing Independents than Right Wing Independents and it just wouldn't work.  </p>

<p>So at the end of the day, on the key ministries, I'm calling it; Taoiseach Enda Kenny, Tanaiste Eamon Gilmore &amp; Finance will be Pat Rabbitte in my opinion.  And there is a small chance that Michael Noonan might be in Foreign Affairs, as Fine Gael will want that.  But I think that the quid pro quo of Finance going to Labour will be the Justice, Enterprise and Employment brief will definitely be going to Fine Gael.  </p>]]></description>
            <link>http://www.electionpredict.com/news/coalition-but-how-will-the-cabinet-look.html</link>
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                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category">001 Latest Election News</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category">005 Ivan Yates&apos; Election Betting</category>
            
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            <pubDate>Mon, 28 Feb 2011 21:30:00 +0000</pubDate>
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            <title>Where to now for Fianna Fail?</title>
            <description><![CDATA[<p>Firstly, there is no point in underestimating the extent of the challenge facing Fianna Fáil.  It's much, much worse than Fine Gael in '02.  Twenty odd seats nationwide, one seat in Dublin.</p>

<p>The first thing they will look to is the Senate elections. The number of councillors was greatly depleted in the 2009 Local Elections, so they are only going to have about ten Senators.  On top of that, the local elections are not imminent, being due in 2014.  They also face being out numbered in opposition by Left Wing TDs, by the likes of Sinn Féin, the United Left Alliance, Boyd Barrett and Joe Higgins, people like that. They are going to be significantly out numbered.</p>

<p>Their losing candidates also face the trauma of have no jobs to go to. They can't go back onto the Council. There was a dual mandate introduced previously forbidding that.  And a lot of them are going to have to give up politics and focus on a different career.  And the nature of politics is, it requires a full time commitment. So people expect a local constituency office. So there's going to be entire tracts and counties as we predicted in Kildare and Tipperary and Kerry, Roscommon and Leitrim and Sligo where there is no Fianna Fail <span class="caps">TD.  </span></p>

<p>They still have a good organisation but I think it will take them a year to absorb this shock.  And then the green shoots will eventually grow with new people, who will be eyeing up the local elections, but it will be a very slow process. </p>]]></description>
            <link>http://www.electionpredict.com/news/where-to-now-for-fianna-fail.html</link>
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                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category">001 Latest Election News</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category">005 Ivan Yates&apos; Election Betting</category>
            
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            <pubDate>Mon, 28 Feb 2011 20:02:02 +0000</pubDate>
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            <title>The 19th minute - Mad World</title>
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            <link>http://www.electionpredict.com/news/betfair-ireland-blog/the-19th-minute.html</link>
            <guid>http://www.electionpredict.com/news/betfair-ireland-blog/the-19th-minute.html</guid>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category">004 Betfair Ireland</category>
            
            
            <pubDate>Mon, 28 Feb 2011 15:26:02 +0000</pubDate>
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            <title>Coalition but no detail on the cards</title>
            <description><![CDATA[<p>Well first of all, the key point for <b>Gilmore</b> and <b>Kenny</b> will be that there will be a five year programme. <b>Cowan</b>'s real failing was, he tried to get to June 2012 and couldn't get there.  So he was ill-prepared for the election.  So they'll want to build a government that can cope with being very unpopular in the first two years of office right up to 2013.  </p>

<p>They will want to be mindful of the next local elections in 2014 and will look to build towards that.  So they are looking at a new concept of burden sharing, not burning the bondholders, but taking the burden of unpopularity. They'll want to construct diplomatically, being mindful that there will be a lot of disappointed people who are not going to be ministers, and I think the key to that will be to give as little detail as possible.  The key driver, they are going to kind of say, is the economic emergency, the need for stability, the need for reform.  So I think they'll paper over it, in order to be aligned in time for the <b>Labour</b> Party conference next Sunday.  So the only way  they deal with the detail in the timeframe involved, is to paper over the cracks.  They will not explicitly say, 'this is what's going to happen in social welfare and tax'.  Because if they do, they'll fall out.  </p>

<p>Bear in mind, they'll also need briefing from the Department of Finance on exactly what is the state of the banks and the budget and so on.  And I'd say a lot of that is in rag order.  So given the timescales involved, it is mission impossible to square the circles that cannot be squared.  </p>]]></description>
            <link>http://www.electionpredict.com/news/005-ivan-yates-election-betting/coalition-but-no-detail-on-the-cards.html</link>
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                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category">001 Latest Election News</category>
            
                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category">005 Ivan Yates&apos; Election Betting</category>
            
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            <pubDate>Mon, 28 Feb 2011 12:37:02 +0000</pubDate>
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            <title>Vincent Browne - Urusla Hannigan Skit</title>
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            <link>http://www.electionpredict.com/news/betfair-ireland-blog/vincent-browne---urusla-hannigan-skit.html</link>
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                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category">004 Betfair Ireland</category>
            
            
            <pubDate>Mon, 28 Feb 2011 09:26:05 +0000</pubDate>
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            <title>Angry? You bet we are!</title>
            <description><![CDATA[<p>Where do I start with this one? <b>Exit Polls</b> are always about the headline figures for the vast majority, and then left to <b>political scientists</b> to dissect thereafter. But we do have a softer side.... One of the questions we asked on Friday, which was not really highlighted in the media coverage yesterday, was how the electorate felt about the way things were going in the country these days.</p>

<p>We asked them to evaluate six emotions - Anger, Fear, Confident, Hope, Worry and Outrage.</p>

<p>We were a cranky bunch at the <b>Polling stations</b> on Friday -the overriding emotion was anger.  57% of the electorate, when casting their vote felt "very angry", with a further quarter feeling "moderately angry" (I don't know what would antagonise this passive group). </p>

<p><b>Dubliners</b> were most angry - reflected by the annihilation of Fianna Fail in the capital. Those aged 25-34 were also aggrieved more than most. </p>

<p><b>Sinn Feiners</b> were the most cantankerous bunch, followed by Labour supporters, again reflecting to a certain extent how that electoral ball bounced in Dublin.   <br />
One in seven (14%) <b>Fianna Failers</b> felt "not at all angry".  Therein lies their problem in election 2011.</p>

<p>Outrage was the second most endorsed emotion. So what does all this say about us as an electorate? </p>

<p>Just as well we don't live in Greece. Or Libya. </p>

<p>Paul Moran Millward Brown Lansdowne</p>]]></description>
            <link>http://www.electionpredict.com/news/angry-you-bet-we-are.html</link>
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                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category">003 Millward Brown Lansdowne Blog</category>
            
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            <pubDate>Sun, 27 Feb 2011 16:30:48 +0000</pubDate>
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            <title>Civil War Politics - Let&apos;s call an end to it.</title>
            <description><![CDATA[<p>When <b>Fine Gael</b> lost out badly in 2002, there was a sense of triumphilism in the air by some <b>Fianna Failers</b> that they had eventually put that party to bed.  This time it's different.</p>

<p><b>Fine Gael</b> has had a brilliant election. <b>Fianna Fail</b> has been humiliated. But the focus has moved on already to Europe. </p>

<p>In the meantime, let's look the relationship between the parties. Our exit poll highlights the dynamics of the shifts that have happened. There was always the school of thought that in this election hard core Fianna Failers would lift the party (to some extent) and be done with it.  </p>

<p>We asked voters not only where the first preferences went but also where their second preferences went. Unsurprisingly, <b>Fianna Fail</b> were pretty much transfer toxic - just 8% gave them any nod at all.  However, those most likely to do so were Fine Gaelers  -11% of them gave a second preference to Fianna Fail. Interestingly a lot of them were of the same gene pool (42% of former Fianna Failers had jumped into bed with FG).<br />
  <br />
Similarly if you look at the hard core <span class="caps">FF'</span>ers, if they were going to give a 2nd preference, they were most likely to give it to Fine Gael (26% of their transfers went that way).<br />
It seems that some have embraced the forbidden love already. </p>

<p>Time to move on.</p>]]></description>
            <link>http://www.electionpredict.com/news/civil-war-politics---lets-call-an-end-to-it.html</link>
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                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category">003 Millward Brown Lansdowne Blog</category>
            
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            <pubDate>Sun, 27 Feb 2011 14:34:01 +0000</pubDate>
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            <title>All changed - changed utterly</title>
            <description><![CDATA[<p>This <b>election</b> was always going to be different.</p>

<p>On the back of the worst recession the country has ever experienced, and in the wake of public scandals that have challenged the moral, economic and political pillars of Irish society. The demand for change was palpable. The outgoing <b>government</b> will be remembered for a lot of things, not least of which is the abysmal 4% approval rating in their final days.</p>

<p><b>Fianna Fáil</b> and the <b>Green Party</b> have suffered at the hands of an angry electorate. The Green Party has been wiped out, not a seat left. Questions about the viability of the party will now be asked, does it have a future in Irish politics anymore?</p>

<p><b>Fianna Fáil</b> knew there would be backlash, but must be shellshocked at the severity of it. Left fighting for the place of main opposition with <b>Sinn Féin</b>. That it would come to this was suggested in commentary, but the impact of seeing Fianna Fáil collapse still packs a punch. No political party has had such an enduring legacy on the Irish State. The party will continue, although it will be forever changed by this experience, and the role it plays in Ireland will be different. That is the challenge now for the new breed of the 'Soldiers of Destiny'.</p>

<p><b>Sinn Féin</b> have been elevated to mainstream politics in Ireland, no longer hovering at the fringes they are placed to become a main element of the opposition. Government needs a strong opposition to challenge it and put forward new and different ideas. Sinn Féin have inherited responsibility as a result of their success and must also change to rise to that challenge.</p>

<p>The day belongs to <b>Fine Gael</b> and <b>Labour</b>. <b>Fine Gael</b> look set to break the records on the number of seats they will hold, Labour have already set a new record. These parties must now find a way to work together, to help Ireland recover from the recession and pave the way to a more prosperous future. <b>Eamon Gilmore</b> and Enda Kenny have a lot of work to do, on the foot of this <b>election</b> the Irish people are right to expect it.</p>

<p>The political landscape has been redrawn, new forces have emerged to take the place of those who have fallen. This election was always going to be different.</p>]]></description>
            <link>http://www.electionpredict.com/news/all-changed---changed-utterly.html</link>
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            <pubDate>Sun, 27 Feb 2011 14:30:59 +0000</pubDate>
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            <link>http://www.electionpredict.com/news/ge11-from-international-eyes.html</link>
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                <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#category">004 Betfair Ireland</category>
            
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            <pubDate>Sat, 26 Feb 2011 20:08:28 +0000</pubDate>
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