Where to now for Fianna Fail?
Firstly, there is no point in underestimating the extent of the challenge facing Fianna Fáil. It's much, much worse than Fine Gael in '02. Twenty odd seats nationwide, one seat in Dublin.
The first thing they will look to is the Senate elections. The number of councillors was greatly depleted in the 2009 Local Elections, so they are only going to have about ten Senators. On top of that, the local elections are not imminent, being due in 2014. They also face being out numbered in opposition by Left Wing TDs, by the likes of Sinn Féin, the United Left Alliance, Boyd Barrett and Joe Higgins, people like that. They are going to be significantly out numbered.
Their losing candidates also face the trauma of have no jobs to go to. They can't go back onto the Council. There was a dual mandate introduced previously forbidding that. And a lot of them are going to have to give up politics and focus on a different career. And the nature of politics is, it requires a full time commitment. So people expect a local constituency office. So there's going to be entire tracts and counties as we predicted in Kildare and Tipperary and Kerry, Roscommon and Leitrim and Sligo where there is no Fianna Fail TD.
They still have a good organisation but I think it will take them a year to absorb this shock. And then the green shoots will eventually grow with new people, who will be eyeing up the local elections, but it will be a very slow process.
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