Election Predict 2010

Wanted: a decisive outcome

Election day comment and insight from Andrew Hawkins, ComRes Chairman

Despite the excitement of the debates, Gillian Duffy, Elvis and all the rest, the eve-of-election polls point to a very tight contest. What is clear is that the electorate want change, but they're not sure they want the sort of change on offer.

The danger is that whoever is Prime Minister by tomorrow evening may not have the mandate to implement public spending cuts on the scale needed to match aspirations with actions. The danger of cutting without such a mandate? Just look at Greece.

So, at the risk of sounding eeyorish on this sunny election morn, here is a note of caution about the electorate's mood, based on our Prediction Poll aired last night on ITV News at Ten and published in today's Independent.

The headline results indicate a nine percent lead for the Conservatives, on 37%, with Labour and the Lib Dems both on 28%. However, with one eye on how these vote shares might translate into House of Commons seats, we asked who people wanted to see as PM on Friday as against who they expected would be. The results, below, show a distinct lack of enthusiasm for any of the party leaders including - surprisingly - Nick Clegg.

Q1. Who would you (a) most like and (b) expect to see becoming PM on Friday?

MOST LIKE EXPECT TO SEE

David Cameron 33% 56%
Gordon Brown 23% 19%
Nick Clegg 18% 4%
Don't know 17% 19%

So, even if David Cameron wins the keys to Downing Street, he would not be the positive choice of two-thirds of the electorate.

As a result of the quirks of the electoral system, there may also be a messier end to all this. Within the margin of error of our Prediction Poll could be the result that the Conservatives win 35%, Labour 30% and the Lib Dems 30%. According to the electoralcalculus website, this would result in the Conservatives winning fewer seats than Labour despite winning more votes.

In such a situation the public would not be best pleased:

"The party with the most VOTES in the election should get to be PM"

Agree 81%
Disagree 15%

"The party with the most SEATS in the election should get to be PM"

Agree 51%
Disagree 41%

Of course, the above scenario is not the one expectated in any of the final campaign polls, including ours, but it is important to appreciate the mood of the electorate in case of a surprise result.

More likely, perhaps, is that a range of factors will combine to deliver a small overall majority for the Conservatives. These would include local and regional factors, including a reversal of the incumbency advantage in many seats where MPs have been required to repay expenses money. Similarly the high number of retiring MPs makes local contests less predictable.

Whatever the outcome, surprises will doubtless be numerous tonight. We wish all our readers an enjoyable night watching the results come in.