GUBU
Well, that was the week that was. So how would you describe it? Unbelievable. Bizarre. Unprecedented. And to a stubborn minority in the country - probably Grotesque. But enough about Ireland's win against England in the Cricket World Cup...
Election 2011 was certainly without precedent, and was historic and ground breaking for so many reasons - Fianna Fail's lowest ever Dail representation, Fine Gael and Labour's highest, Sinn Fein with its highest number of seats since the struggle for independence. And as for the eclectic bunch of Independents in the ranks.... Where do you start?
I commented previously that the 2011 campaign was curious, as there was no game-breaking moment - neither a killer punch nor a banana skin springs to mind.
I think there were a couple of reasons for this - in essence the campaign began in November, when the Greens finally signalled they were pulling the plug on a government that had been on life support for a long, long time. There was an element of fatigue in the air.
Secondly, it was clear pretty much from the outset that there was not going to be a recovery for Fianna Fail (a recovery being understood to mean a respectable showing - say twenty five percent). The electorate was in an unforgiving mood, and was not prepared to listen to apologies, proposed reforms or justifications for what had happened to the economy.
After that realisation, it was really just a matter of who would benefit most from the carve-up. It reminded me of a nature documentary, where you watch animals of various sizes step up to claim their piece of what was once a mighty animal. It seems there was enough meat on the carcass to keep most of them fed (for the next five years at any rate). Or will it?
To paraphrase one the newly elected TDs, the turbulent times we live in haven't gone away you know.
With this in mind, as part of our Omnibus survey, we have been asking the electorate over the month of February how long the new government (however it's made up) will last. Less than a quarter (23%) thought the next government will last full term. One third did not know, leaving a sizeable minority (44%) believing we will be back here sooner than that.
So until then, enjoy the fireworks, and on the basis of what the electorate thinks of the future government's success, you may be hearing from me again- sooner than you think.
- Paul Moran Millward Brown Lansdowne
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