Election Predict 2010

UK VOTE 2010: LIVE

Welcome to Election Predict's live blog for the day, night and day after the 2010 UK General Election! Keep checking here for updates on all predictions we see, both polling and betting.

0551: CAROLINE LUCAS AND THE GREEN PARTY WIN IN BRIGHTON PAVILION

Something Betfair customers had been predicting for months. The Greens win their first ever Westminster seat.

0538: BREAKING NEWS - BETFAIR PUNTERS CALL ELECTION

THE CONSERVATIVES have not won an overall majority at the General Election, according to the betting on Betfair. David Cameron's party are now given just a 1% chance (odds 39-1) of winning a majority.

This puts them past the 'point of no return', whereby when a party drops below 10% in the betting they have never come back to win. This has been the trend at all major elections since Betfair was founded in 2000

A Hung Parliament is now a 99% chance (odds 1-100), while the current seat forecast stands at 312 Conservatives, 245 Labour and 61 Liberal Democrats.

Favourite in the betting on what happens next is that David Cameron will end up as Prime Minister in a minority government, currently a 67% chance (odds 1-2). Gordon Brown leading a minority government is at 17% (odds 5-1), while any other Prime Minister is on 12% (odds 7-1).

Betfair spokesman Mike Robb said: "The game is up for the Conservatives tonight. Yes they have won the most seats, as our markets have been forecasting for months, but the prospect of a Conservative majority is now all but over.

"The betting markets have an incredible record at predicting events at this stage of the day and our punters, who have bet millions of pounds on this election, say it's a Hung Parliament.

"As to what happens next, punters are pointing to David Cameron leading a minority government as the most likely outcome. Given all that's happened tonight, though, anything could happen!"

0535: Hung Parliament on Betfair is now 1.01. The punters have spoken. Let the negotiating begin...

0530. Shock all round as Labour hold onto Hammersmith. A bitter pill to swallow for the Conservatives.

0515: Tories miss out on Birmingham Edgebaston and their odds on Betfair drift again to 17/1. We're getting ready to call this.

0504: Interesting point we'd like to make. At no major election since Betfair was founded in 2000 has a party come back to win from a point where they are given less than a 10% chance in the markets. Right now a Conservative majority is settled at 12%, though has been edging towards that sub-10% line since about 3am.

In other words - this election result is getting very, very close to the point of no return, according to the betting markets. It has now dipped below 10% a couple of times, and as soon as it has settled there for a period of time we will be ready to 'call' the election.

What will then become interesting is what punters think is going to happen as a result. Right now the favourite is David Cameron as PM in a minority government, though interestingly 'any other' PM is in with a shout, currently given a 12.5% chance.

Are Labour set to dump Brown and form a coalition? Watch this space!

0456: Live graph showing the betting...

0451: Ed Balls survives. Only just though....hate to say we told you so...but we did!

0445: Tories snare Pudsey from Labour and their odds for an overall majority shorten accordingly to 13/2.

0438: Labour lose Dewsbury to Conservatives.

0436: Jacqui Smith is ousted by some margin as Tories gain Redditch seat.

0426: LUTON SOUTH RESULT - LABOUR HOLD

0420: A few more Conservative gains coming in, including Stroud and Swindon South, but no impact on the betting - still 11% Tory majority, 87% Hung Parliament.

0414: It is now 1-100 that the BNP will not win a seat anywhere in the country - a 99% chance. Nick Griffin looks like he's going to come a poor third in Barking and they are doing similarly badly nationally.

0405. Wyre Forest gain has had little impact on Tory chances. Hung Parliament still at 86% chance.

0403: WYRE FOREST - CONSERVATIVE GAIN

0358: Voter turnout now looks set to be 65-70%, and not 70-75% as was the favourite early in the day. Somewhat surprising given the widespread reports of a high turnout, queues at polling stations, etc.

Over 75% turnout is now 199-1, having hit a low of 2-1 earlier in the night... Incredible!

0356: LIB DEM GAIN - REDCAR, 21.8% SWING FROM LABOUR

0355: CONSERVATIVE GAIN - CLEETHORPES

0352: CONSERVATIVE GAIN - South Ribble, 8.1% swing from Labour

0340: CARLISLE - CONSERVATIVE GAIN

Hope yet for the Tories? Slight gain in the markets, Cameron's men up 5% for a majority.

03:37. Hung Parliament looking very likely now and as a result, the odds on their being two elections in 2010 have shortened to 5/4. That's a 44% chance.

03:25. Polling station debacle is taking its toll on voter turnout forecasts. Not long ago 70-75% was the favourite, yet now, 65-70% is odds on at 1/4.

03:21. There's now an 89% chance of there being No Overall Majority.

0249: LATEST SEAT PREDICTION...

Conservatives: 316
Labour: 238
Lib Dems: 66

0241: BETTING UPDATE: MAJOR MOVE AGAINST CONSERVATIVES IN LAST 10 MINUTES

The Conservatives have plummeted in the betting on Betfair over the last 10 minutes. They are now just a 25% chance for a majority (odds 3-1), having been as high as 64% earlier in the night.

A Hung Parliament is now a 75% chance (odds 1-3).

Current seat predictions put the Tories on 318 seats, Labour on 236 and the Liberal Democrats on 66.

Betfair spokesman Mike Robb said: "There has been a significant move against the Conservatives in the last few minutes, with punters showing a strong indication that the Tories aren't doing quite well enough to get to that 326 mark."

Latest Betfair Predictions: (02:30 GMT)
Betfair Seat Forecast: 318 Conservatives, 236 Labour, 66 Lib Dems, 30 Other
Betfair Overall Majority Forecast: 75% (1-3) Hung Parliament, 25% (3-1) Conservative majority, <1% (199-1) Labour majority, <1% (999-1) Lib Dem majority

02:25: Lembit Opik's shock defeat has caused the Tory's chances of an overall majority rise by 9%. Amazing scenes...

02:20: Major move towards no overall majority on Betfair. Odds now at 4/11 (74%) for a Hung Parliament.

0215: LATEST SEAT PREDICTIONS:

Conservatives: 320
Labour: 230
Lib Dems: 71

02:02. No Overall Majority back as the firm favourite now with an implied chance of 63%.

0150: CONSERVATIVES HOLD GUILDFORD... This was seen as a seat the Lib Dems could have taken, but the Tories increased their majority to ove 8,000. Hung Parliament and Tory majority now trading at 50% each.

Talk about close!

Betfair's Mike Robb said: "I've never seen a political betting event like this in my life. By this stage at every election since Betfair was founded we had a near-certain winner. This election couldn't be further away from that!"

01:46. Labour have held Tooting and as a result odds on a Tory majority have drifted back out to evens...

0144: Jane Ellison wins Battersea. We had her unbackable hours ago on Betfair!

01:35. You can no longer back the Conservatives to win the most seats.

0131: Latest seat projections on Betfair:

Conservatives: 332
Labour: 216
Lib Dems: 73

0124: The Conservatives are now odds-on to gain an overall majority on Betfair, with punters seemingly influenced by the large swings towards the Tories in the seats declared so far.

David Cameron's party started the day at odds of 6-4 -a 40% chance - to gain a majority, however now their odds are 8-15, a chance of 67%.

Betfair spokesman Ari Last said: "The swing shown in both seats won and lost so far is clearly causing punters to believe that David Cameron and the Tories will break the 326 seat barrier."

**0109: BREAKING...**Torbay held by the Lib Dems, swing of 1.1% swing Conservative-Lib Dem.

0107: Markets just strengthened for Tories even more after that 9.4% swing in the first Conservative gain of the night in Kingswood. Things are starting to look like they are going for the Conservatives as the seats come in, so is suggested by the betting.

0058: Conservatives odds-on for a majority again, just over 50%, after the swing in Darlington - 9.1% from Labour to Tories.

0045: The odds on there being two elections in 2010 have come in significantly in the last hour.

They now stand at 11/10 which is an implied chance of 48%. That's come in from odds of 5-2. Which was an implied chance of 29%.

Are punters becoming more confident that we'll end up with a hung parliament tonight?

Greens: Meanwhile, a first ever seat for the Green Party seat looks very very likely according to the betting. Odds on Caroline Lucas winning in Brighton Pavilion now stand at 1/10. That a 91% chance.

0030: Caroline Lucas hottly tipped to win the Green Party's first ever seat. Her odds on Betfair stand at 1-7 on. That's an implied chance of 88%.

0028: Labour are 1-10 (a 92% chance) to win Barking, keeping BNP leader Nick Griffin out. Nearly £10,000 traded on that market so far. 86% chance that the BNP do NOT win a seat anywhere, nationwide.

0020 Martin Linton looks certain to have lost Battersea. It's now impossible to back the Conservatives for a win there - nailed on, say punters.

0007: Newcastle-upon-Tyne Central result should be coming up in the not too distant future. We're currently showing Labour on 1-2 (a 67% chance) and the Liberal Democrats on 7-4 (36%).

If the Lib Dems pull off a win here it should be a very good night for them, but for the moment the betting suggests it's going to be Labour who hold the seat.

0004: The Betfair overall majority betting market has just passed £6m traded, while the most seats market is £6.2m. Figures looking good for the night - that makes total trade so far over the course of all election markets something in the region of £15m.

This is going to be massively helped by the closeness of the race. If things are close (unlike, for example, the 2008 US election, or London Mayoral race) then people like a bet. I think we can safely say that things don't get much closer than this!!

2358: Liberal Democrats still odd-on favourites to win Taunton Deane and Watford, two seats that would indivate a decent night for Nick Clegg and co.

Current seat prediction shows 325 seats for the Conservatives, 229 for Labour and 70 for the Liberal Democrats.

2344: Hung Parliament and Tory majority now neck and neck after Sunderland Central result. It's 50/50.

**2329.**CONSERVATIVES NOW ODDS-ON to win an overall majority after 11.6% swing in Sunderland West!

2326: Things ebbing back towards 50/50 now after that result from Sunderland West.

2322. Tories are now at the shortest odds possible to win the most seats. 1/100. That's £1 won for every £100 staked!

2316: Labour out to 219-1 for an overall majority, that's nearer to a 0% chance than a 1% chance, hence it's showing 0% in the bar at the top of the page. As expected, it looks very much like a Hung Parliament v Conservative majority bout.

2312: Tories coming back in the betting markets, again! It's all very, very volatile at the moment. Current predictions:

Conservatives: 323
Labour: 227
Lib Dem: 72
Other: 28

Interesting that the exit poll across BBC/Sky etc has just downgraded the Tories to 305 at the very same time the Betfair markets have upgraded them to 323. What's that argument the pollsters always use that the betting follows the polls?! (Sorry ComRes!!)

2306: Green Party are a 1-2 chance (that's about 75%) to win Brighton Pavilion - would be their first seat in the House of Commons ever. A very interesting story down there whatever happens.

2302: New exit poll puts Tories on 305 seats, Labour 255, Lib Dems 61 and others 29. We don't know what to think over here!

2253: That first result in Sunderland has seen a decent bounce for the Conservatives in the betting. Swing to the Tories was 8.5% - not enough for a majority if that is reflected nationally, but in a safe Labour seat punters clearly think that is a good sign for the Conservatives. They are now 34% for a majority.

2251: FIRST RESULT OF THE NIGHT: HOUGHTON & SUNDERLAND SOUTH

All goes to the script here, as Labour win comfortably.

2249: 56% of the last 2,010 bets on Betfair's election markets have been on the Conservatives, 22% on Labour and 11% on the Liberal Democrats. See our live election betting map now, showing you every constituency in the UK. CLICK HERE.

2238: Voter turnout set to be 70-75%, according to the betting. There's a 31% chance of that happening. 75% and over has come in from 7-1 this morning to 9-4, which is a 31% chance. Whatever band it is, the story is clear... It's a big turnout! Certainly the biggest since 1997.

2220: BETTING UPDATE: CONSERVATIVES LOSING SUPPORT IN BETTING MARKETS

There has been a major move in the Betfair markets in the last half hour showing a drop in the chances of a Tory majority. The Tories started the day on 40% (odds 6-4) but are now given a 35% chance (odds 15-8).

There have been huge swings in the betting over the course of the day, with the Conservatives going as high as 55% for a majority at around 21:40 this evening. A Hung Parliament is now a 65% chance (odds 8-15).

Current seat predictions put David Cameron's party on 316 seats, Labour on 226 and the Liberal Democrats on 75.

Turnout also looks to be high, with 70-75% the 7-4 favourite (a 36% chance).

Betfair spokesman Mike Robb said: "There have already been some dramatic moves in the betting over the course of the day, but as it stands it looks like the Conservatives could struggle to break the magic 326 mark.

"The betting markets are so volatile at the moment it really a case of blink and you'll miss it!"

Figures correct at 2215:
Betfair Seat Forecast: 316 Conservatives, 226 Labour, 75 Lib Dems, 30 Other
Betfair Overall Majority Forecast: 35% (15-8) Hung Parliament, 65% (8-15) Conservative majority, 1% (94-1) Labour majority, <1% (489-1) Lib Dem majority

22:15. Labour's chances of gaining what was always an unlikely overall majority are getting slimmer by the moment. Their odds now stand at 119-1...and growing.

2200: POLLS CLOSE

Current predictions: As the BBC announced their exit poll, the odds jumped against the Tories. Hung Parliament is now a 58% chance.

Interestingly, the exit poll put the Lib Dems on just 59 seats, but the Betfair market shows 77 seats going their way.

2156: Conservatives are now back down to 52% for a majority. We hear the MORI exit poll was leaked, whcih could have had an impact. 4 minutes until exit polls hit the screens so wait for it!!

2145. Momentum firmly behind the Tories now. They are now slight favourites for a majority with an implied chance of 55%! High drama here...

2135: MOVE IN THE BETTING FOR THE TORIES. Up 2% to 44% in last half hour. Rumours of an exit poll showing Conservatives on 39% could be fuelling it. Have you heard/seen anything? If so drop us an email at politics@betfair.com

2124: Ed Balls looks very vulnerable in Morley and Outwood. Nearly a 50/50 chance of him losing there, could he be the Michael Portillo of 2010?

2108: And we're off! As it stands right now, the Betfair markets seem to think there's a bit of momentum behind the Tories. Chances of a Tory majority are up 2% in the past hour, from 40% to 42%, though a Hung Parliament remains the clear favourite on 56%.

The blog will start at 2100, so check back then for our first predictions according to the markets. The first exit polling will be released at 2200, when polls close, and that's when we'll really see things start to heat up!

If you see anything we should post or want to know something, email us at politics@betfair.com.