Election Predict 2010

ComRes/Inde Poll: Conservative lead down to five points

The Conservative Party's lead has dropped from seven to five points in the past month, according to a ComRes poll for The Independent. It suggests Labour would have 17 more seats than the Conservatives in a hung parliament.

The survey puts the Tories on 37 per cent (down one point since last month), Labour on 32 per cent (up one point), the Liberal Democrats on 19 per cent (unchanged) and other parties on 12 per cent (unchanged).

If repeated at a general election, these figures would leave Gordon Brown 32 seats short of an overall majority in a hung parliament. According to John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University, Labour would have 294 seats, the Tories 277, the Liberal Democrats 46 and others 33.

ComRes also tested voters' perceptions of Gordon Brown and David Cameron. It found they were neck and neck on the economy, with 43 per cent of people believing Mr Cameron has the right skills to lead Britain back to economic health and 42 per cent saying the same of Mr Brown. Some 45 per cent believe the Tory leader would reduce Britain's debt if he wins the election, while fewer people (37 per cent) think Mr Brown would.

Mr Cameron (48 per cent) is seen as a strong leader by more voters than Mr Brown (43 per cent).

Allegations of bullying at Downing Street do not appear to have damaged the Prime Minister. One in five (20 per cent) of people say he is "an unpleasant bully" but 69 per cent do not, while 12 per cent think Mr Cameron is (and 78 per cent do not).

ComRes telephoned 1005 GB adults between 26 and 28 February 2010. Data were weighted by past vote recall. ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. Full tables at www.comres.co.uk