Another election in 2010 a real possibility
There is a 38% chance (odds 6-4) of another General Election being held in 2010, according to the betting on Betfair. That prospect stood at 28% (odds 5-2) as polls opened on Thursday morning, but given the uncertainty following the result those odds have tightened significantly.
Punters predict that David Cameron will be the next Prime Minister, an 80% chance (odds 1-4), whilst Gordon Brown staying on as PM in a minority is now at 14% (odds 6-1).
Punters do not completely rule out the prospect of neither Cameron nor Brown becoming PM, currently a 13% chance (odds 10-1), which suggests there is still some prospect of a Lib/Lab coalition with Brown removed as leader.
Whatever happens in the interim, the betting suggests that Brown is likely to step down as Labour leader by the end of June (a 70% chance, odds 2-5). David Miliband is the current favourite to replace him at 11-10, a 46% chance.
Betfair spokesman Mike Robb said: "Now that the twists and turns of election night are over, punters are turning their attention to what happens next. The clear picture emerging from the markets is that there is a real possibility of another election this year.
"The betting also suggests it could be the end of the road for Gordon Brown, with current forecasts showing a 70% chance of him leaving as Labour Party leader by the end of June."
Current betting: (odds in brackets)
Another election in 2010 - Betfair: 64% (8-15) No, 38% (6-4) Yes
Government makeup - Betfair: 80% (1-4) Cameron/minority, 14% (6-1) Brown/minority, 13% (10-1) any other PM/government
Gordon Brown exit date - Betfair: 70% (2-5) by end of June 2010, 20% (4-1) July to Sept 2010, 10% (9-1) Oct to Dec 2010, 6% (14-1) Jan 2011 onwards
Next Labour leader - Betfair: 47% (11-10) David Miliband, 14% (6-1) Alan Johnson, 11% (9-1) Ed Miliband, 8% (11-1) Ed Balls, 7% (12-1) Harriet Harman, 5% (18-1) Alistair Darling, others on request
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